In The News This Month – October 2022
Editorial
Tired of the political ads? I’m sure most people can answer with a resounding yes to that question, especially in October. As November 8th approaches, there is no shortage of political ads on television, social media, and radio. In an article featured on WattPoultry, a very important point is made by Senior Editor, Roy Graber. He states that although politicians tend to blame the current or opposing party for anything bad happening, blaming the administration for high egg prices is simply not right. The fact is the major reason for high egg prices continues to be lack of supply brought on by the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak. For the last week in October, shell egg inventory was down 1.6 and prices were proportionally higher. Although the U.S. flock is recovering in size with weekly transfer of pullets compensating for HPAI losses, we can still expect to see high prices as demand increases going into the holiday baking season.
HPAI is affecting more than the egg market. More Minnesota turkey flocks were hit this month, totaling over 95,000 turkeys in two separate counties. With this ever-changing avian influenza situation, we can expect record turkey retail prices for this Thanksgiving. Be sure to give a click to the video we featured this month where Dr. Thomas Elam, president of FarmEcon LLC, examined price trends and gave his assessment on what to expect at the store this holiday season. We might all want to get that turkey early or just plan on spending more on our annual Thanksgiving feast.
Another significant topic covered this month was the impact of inflation on the shopping behaviors of consumers. We’re obviously looking to save a dollar where we can these days, but what does that mean for 2023 sales? We highlighted an article this month detailing 4 retail trends that will drive 2023 poultry sales. Not surprising, sustainability and claims-based products, such as natural, organic, or antibiotic-free, are attracting the most attention. Looking at other trends for 2023, global pork and chicken production is forecasted to rise next year, but beef production is expected to be lower. According to a recent report by Derrell Peel and Glynn Tonsor, many people believe more than enough beef is grown in the U.S. to sustain its population, but that’s just not the case. According to their study, about 24% of our ground beef is imported. Ground beef is the main driver of beef imports because of the tremendous hamburger demand in the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S. beef market can export specific products more popular to other markets, thus helping the industry to continue to see significant growth.
Finally, this being October we had to include some articles on one of our favorite holidays – Halloween. Be sure to check out the article featured on The Daily Scoop for seven pumpkin facts that will impress your friends this year. My personal favorite – 80% of pumpkin acres in Illinois are devoted to pumpkin varieties destined for pie filling. Another fascinating fact comes to us from the dairy sector, one I was not aware of, chocolate milk has been dubbed the official beverage of Halloween! So, enjoy all of your Halloween festivities this year and don’t forget to add some chocolate milk to the menu.
Monica Lizar
Account Manager
Aeros, a Cultura Company
Feed and Grains:
Does Corn Need To Trade Back To $6.50 Or Move Up To $7.50?
Throughout October, the soybean board traded $13.83 – 18 out of 21 possible times, while corn traded $6.83 – 19 out of 21 times. Clearly the market is in a sideways trading pattern and is searching for a reason to move higher or lower, but there are several variables impacting market direction.
Ukraine Grain Corridor
The warring parties in Europe agreed to a 120-day grain export corridor in the Black Sea that will end in mid-November, unless an extension agreement is made. Russia on Saturday has indicated it is not happy with the current arrangement and will not renew the agreement.
Without an agreement, there will be less grain available from the Black Sea region and a futures rally would be expected. On the flip side, should a deal be brokered, and a continuation of the agreement put in place it could put downward pressure on prices.
Read full article here
Trade Tiff Brewing Between U.S. and Mexico Over Ban on GMO Corn
Mexico has confirmed that the country does not plan to amend its ban on imports of GMO that is set to start in 2024. Mexico’s Deputy Ag Minister says the country is on track to cut is imports of U.S. yellow corn by half through increased domestic production. Mexico is a top customer for U.S. corn, accounting for 20 to 25% of U.S. corn exports annually. So, this is a huge issue.
Mexico is back tracking on their reassurances made a year ago that they would not limit imports of GMO corn from the U.S. Instead, they say they’ll make direct deals with farmers in the U.S, Argentina and Brazil who produce non-GMO corn to supply their need outside of domestic production. However, market experts say this is simply not doable.
Rich Nelson, with Allendale, “We’ve heard this story for the past two years. We all understand from the U.S. grain market perspective we simply don’t think it’s going to be realistic. Mexico gets about 90 to 92% of its corn from the U.S., 15 million ton annually and it our GMO corn that’s about 92% of our product.”
In fact, 92% of the world corn supply is GMO. So, Nelson says South America will have difficulty guaranteeing that volume of non-GMO product. He says, “Now you can certainly argue that Brazil is going to be much cheaper than us right now to cargo in but the question is do they have the supply of non-GMO corn that can be verified?”
Read full article here
Russia suspends participation in grain deal
Despite Russia proclaiming that it has suspended its participation in the United Nations-brokered grain export deal with Ukraine, grain ships continued to exit Ukraine’s Black Sea ports on Oct. 31, according to various media reports.
Russia announced its withdrawal from the agreement on Oct. 29 after it claimed that Ukraine, “with the participation of United Kingdom experts,” executed drone attacks on the Crimean city of Sevastopol, including several Russian warships. Ukraine officials have denied any connection to the attack.
The grain export deal, which was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in late July, has allowed the shipment of more than 9 million tonnes of grain and other food exports during the past three months. Prior to the deal, Russia, which invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, had used a naval blockade to prevent the ships from leaving the Black Sea ports.
Read full article here
Just how much would a rail strike hurt farmers?
Rail companies and labor unions have reached stalemate over paid sick leave, raising the prospects of a worker strike in coming months. With harvest just over halfway complete, the threat of a rail strike could not come at a worse time.
Railroads transport 1.5 million carloads of grain each year according to the Association of American Railroads. These carloads account for 25% of all U.S. grain transport, and the rail share for grain export movements is closer to 40%.
Other transport sources could pick up some slack, but with low water levels on the Mississippi already significantly slowing barge movement, and both rail and truck transportation already at full capacity, there’s little margin for error.
Read full article here
Eggs:
Egg prices a topic that doesn’t belong in political ads
I’ve followed politics closely enough over the years to know one thing, if a candidate up for re-election is a member of the opposite political party as the one in power, odds are they are going to find something that is bad, and blame them.
Even though I don’t live in the congressional district of Rep. Ron Estes, R-Kansas, I live close enough that his television and radio ads can be seen and heard in my home.
And Estes, of all things, is insinuating in his ads that the Biden Administration and the Democrats controlling Congress are to blame for high egg prices.
Mind you, the presidential administration always has some impact on the prices of agricultural commodities, these ads seem to overlook something that I would guess Estes already knows: the main reason egg prices are higher than normal is the supply is down because of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak.
Read full article here
USDA invests $11.1 million in Iowa dried-egg product manufacturer
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has announced that the department is investing $11.1 million under the Food Supply Chain Guaranteed Loan Program to help Crystal Freeze Dry LLC expand capacity to manufacture freeze-dried egg products and create job opportunities for people living in rural Iowa. The funding is part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to strengthen critical food supply chain infrastructure to create more thriving communities for the American people.
Read full article here
Egg Week
USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, October 27th 2022.
The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were higher by 3.2 percent on average, reversing the downward move last week but still representing an unseasonal high price. Mediums were up by 12.8 percent reflecting increased demand relative to supply. The availability of Mediums will increase as many pullet flocks enter production, placing price pressure on this size. Retail demand is projected to fluctuate into the holiday season. This past week shell egg inventory was down 1.6 and prices were proportionally higher. Both retail price and demand will continue at a higher level than in previous years sustained by consumer perceptions of value in an inflationary environment concerned over the high cost for protein. Availability and hence prices are influenced by depletion of close to 36 million hens in 15 large complexes in ten states extending from the last week in February through September 21st. The U.S. flock is recovering in size with weekly transfer of pullets compensating for HPAI losses.
Read full article here
Poultry:
4 retail trends that will drive 2023 poultry sales
Meat sales in retail exploded during the pandemic, but consumers are changing their shopping behaviors as inflation and foodservice recovery impacts both unit and volume sales.
“As we all know, it’s been a great number of years in terms of dollars and we have gone all the way from three years ago – less than $70 billion and we thought we were big then – all the way to $85 billion,” said Anne-Marie Roerink, principal, 210 Analytics LLC.
“We have to understand what is happening in the meat case of today to drive that performance.”
During a webinar about the CRYOVAC Brand 2022 National Meat Case Study, Roerink identified four of the latest trends in the fresh meat retail case
Read full article here
Global chicken, pork production forecast to rise in 2023
Global pork and chicken production is forecast to rise next year while beef production is expected to be lower. U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) recently released a report providing a glimpse into 2023’s animal protein production outlook.
All major chicken producing countries, except China, will make gains in 2023, leading to a 2% rise in production, according to the report. The most significant growth, FAS noted, will occur in Brazil, contributing to the record 102.7 million tons forecast.
Read full article here
Turkey:
More Minnesota turkeys struck by avian influenza
Commercial turkey flocks in Minnesota continue to be affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza, with new cases being reported in Le Sueur and Stearns counties.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and the Minnesota Board of Animal Health (MBOAH) reported that the presence of the virus was confirmed in both counties on October 27.
There were 20,058 turkeys in the Le Sueur County flock, and 75,000 turkeys in the Stearns County flock, according to the MBOAH.
This is Le Sueur County’s third case of HPAI in 2022, but the first since April 9. Stearns County has had 11 commercial flocks affected by HPAI this year, as well as one backyard flock.
Read full article here
VIDEO: Expect record retail turkey prices for Thanksgiving 2022
Americans will pay the highest prices ever for turkey this holiday season.
In a WATT Poultry Chat interview, Dr. Thomas Elam, president of FarmEcon LLC, examined price trends and gave his assessment of the ever-evolving avian influenza situation in North America.
Watch video here
Pork:
Court rules HSUS case against Smithfield Foods can proceed
This week the District of Columbia Superior Court denied a motion by Smithfield Foods to dismiss the Humane Society of the United States’ lawsuit against the pork production system over its misrepresention to its consumers that it eliminated gestation crates for pigs in its supply chain.
The lawsuit, filed Oct. 18, 2021, specifically alleges unlawful trade practices and targets their marketing and sales in the District of Columbia for falsely and misleading advertised pork products in violation of the Consumer Protection Procedures Act in D.C. HSUS claims Smithfield’s jargon and hidden caveats “mislead humane-conscious consumers and commercial buyers into purchasing pork” and “increase consumer and corporate confusion over confinement practices on pig farms,” the suit notes.
Read full article here
Communication, biosecurity needed to prevent ASF in US
Communication and biosecurity are two of the most important elements to preventing the entry of African swine fever (ASF) virus into the United States.
That was the message from Jack Shere, deputy administrator for veterinary services at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) during a webinar October 13, part of the department’s ASF Action Week.
“The more that we can spread the word about this deadly virus and the clinical signs and what to expect, the better chances we have at preventing it or slowing its spread should it reach the United States,” Shere said. “Anybody that has any type of swine – be that a pot-bellied pig, a show pig that they’ve raised for the county fair, or the large producer – everybody’s at risk, and everybody needs to take the same steps to prevent this disease from getting to them.”
Shere explained why biosecurity is so vital to preventing the spread of ASF, and steps that should be taken on farm.
Read full article here
USDA ramps up ASF surveillance in Caribbean
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has stepped up its surveillance and testing for African swine fever (ASF) virus in the Caribbean, according to Jack Shere, deputy administrator for veterinary services at APHIS.
Shere spoke October 13 during a webinar as part of the department’s ASF Action Week.
ASF was detected in the Western Hemisphere for the first time in 40 years in July 2021, when it was confirmed in pigs in the Dominican Republic. In September 2021, it was confirmed in pigs in Haiti. The Two countries share the Caribbean island of Hispaniola.
Shere said APHIS has increased ASF surveillance in both countries, as well as in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, where feral hogs present a problem.
Read full article here
Beef:
Report: Beef industry growth to rest more and more on exports
A new trade report analyzing the effects of beef imports and exports highlights the strong economic value of the U.S. beef industry’s participation in a global marketplace.
The report, “Assessing Economic Impact That Would Follow Loss of U.S. Beef Exports and Imports,” was authored by Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, and Glynn Tonsor, professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University.
Commissioned by the Kansas Beef Council, Oklahoma Beef Council and Texas Beef Council, Peel and Tonsor spent six months preparing the 80-page document that was recently released.
Peel said he has fielded questions his entire career concerning beef imports, and many people are not aware of the value of exports, believing more than enough beef is grown in the U.S. to sustain its population. His findings prove otherwise.
Read full article here
Rancher sentenced for running $244m ‘ghost cattle’ scam
A cattle rancher in Washington has been sentenced to 11 years in prison for defrauding Tyson Foods and another company out of more than $244 million by charging the victim companies for the purported costs of purchasing and feeding hundreds of thousands of cattle that did not exist.
According to court documents, Cody Allen Easterday used his company, Easterday Ranches Inc., to enter into a series of agreements with the companies under which Easterday Ranches agreed to purchase and feed cattle for them. Per the agreements, Tyson and the other company would advance Easterday Ranches the costs of buying and raising the cattle. Once the cattle were slaughtered and sold at market price, Easterday Ranches would repay the costs advanced – plus interest and certain other costs – retaining the difference as profit.
Read full article here
Dairy:
DMI CEO modernizing dairy checkoff strategy
Dairy Management Inc. (DMI) Chief Executive Officer Barbara O’Brien is modernizing the checkoff strategy with a fresh organizational structure and a new three-year plan and budget that delivers immediate results and lays ground for long-term benefits for farmers and importers.
O’Brien’s spoke to more than 750 dairy farmers and industry representatives attending the 2022 joint annual meeting of the United Dairy Industry Association, National Dairy Promotion and Research Board and National Milk Producers Federation held outside of Denver, Oct. 25-26.
Read full article here
Chocolate Milk – The Official Beverage of Halloween
With Halloween only a few days away, now is a great time to figure out what you will be passing out to the witches, goblins and ghosts in your neighborhood. Thankfully, chocolate milk is a sweet, healthy treat in disguise! Plus, it has been dubbed the Official Beverage of Halloween.
One 8-ounce serving of low-fat chocolate milk provides 300 milligrams of calcium — or 30% of a child’s daily calcium requirements. Additionally, this delicious treat offers up several other essential nutrients, including:
Read full article here
Miscellaneous:
Six start-ups to compete in 2022 AgLaunch365 Livestock Challenge
AgLaunch is hosting six livestock agtech start-ups solving on-farm issues for the 2022 AgLaunch365 Livestock Challenge. Up to five teams will be selected to move forward in the AgLaunch365 Accelerator that include on-farm trials with AgLaunch Farmer Network members.
During Livestock Challenge week, teams will have the opportunity to learn from pitch experts, farmers, other entrepreneurs, investors, AgLaunch mentors and business leaders. A committee consisting of AgLaunch farmers and investors will make the final decision about which teams will move forward in the AgLaunch365 Accelerator.
Selected teams will participate in a 12-week accelerator with opportunities to showcase at tradeshows including the Mid-South Farm and Gin Show in Memphis, Tennessee. They will also be able to deploy on-farm trials with AgLaunch farmers. During these trials, AgLaunch Farmers work hand-in-hand with start-ups to trial, provide feedback, share data and ultimately aid in the success of the company.
Read full article here
7 Pumpkin Facts to Impress Your Friends on Halloween
In honor of Halloween, arm yourself with a few impressive statistics, courtesy of USDA, about everyone’s favorite fall squash: the pumpkin.
- All States produce some pumpkins, but six States produce most of them.
- In 2021, Illinois maintained its leading position in pumpkin acreage, harvesting more than twice as many pumpkin acres as any of the other top States, at 15,900 acres. Source: USDA
- Pumpkins are a type of squash, indigenous to North America, and have been cultivated since at least 7,500 BCE. Today, pumpkins come in two types: pie type and decorative type. Pie pumpkins are generally smaller, denser, and sweeter than decorative pumpkins. Decorative pumpkins come in many varieties, although the orange Howden used for carving is the most common.
Read full article here
The information in this newsletter is intended to update our readers of current events. Any third-party publications are presented for informational purposes only and the views presented in such publications are those of the respective authors. The views therein are not necessarily representative of Aeros or any other CULTURA company’s views on any particular topic.