In The News This Month – November 2022
Editorial
November – a month centered around giving thanks. A month that signals the start of the holiday season. A month to gather with family and share a meal. According to Farm Bureau’s 37th annual survey, the average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner this year was up 20% from 2021. The cost increase might have to do with the centerpiece of most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey. Wholesale prices for frozen turkeys are nearly 30% higher than last year. An article featured on FeedStuffs.com states that the combination of tight supplies, high holiday demand, and bird losses from the outbreak of HPAI have led to these record high prices. In fact, just over Thanksgiving weekend, roughly 2 million US birds were lost to HPAI. Confirmed cases of the highly pathogenic avian influenza were found at four turkey flocks in South Dakota, one turkey flock in Minnesota, a layer flock in Nebraska and a layer flock Missouri. Fortunately, we can share some news to be thankful for. The National Turkey Federation celebrated the 75 – year tradition of the National Thanksgiving Turkey. This year was especially exciting for Aeros staff, as the two turkeys chosen came from Aeros’ customer Circle-S Ranch in North Carolina. President Biden pardoned “Chocolate” and his alternate “Chip” at the time-honored celebration.
Turkeys are not the only food with higher price tags this month. According to the latest USDA report, large grade A wholesale egg prices averaged $3.35 per dozen, a 216% increase from last October. Although the first half of the month saw a slight decline in cost per dozen, prices began their holiday ascent sooner than expected. Retail demand for eggs followed expectations in November, but what will December bring? Can we expect to pay more as we start to prepare for the Christmas baking season?
As we near the end of 2022, we are again starting to see articles concerning Prop 12 and cage-free egg commitments. According to the 2022 EggTrack Report, over 75% of companies have reported progress on their cage-free transition. What about other industries with needed requirements to comply with Prop 12? The pork industry was in the news this month, as the Supreme Court decides on hearing a case on whether California can dictate how hogs are raised in Indiana. “Depending on how the Supreme Court rules, it could open the door for states to start metaphorical food fights – with food laws.” Expect to continue to hear news about Prop 12 throughout next year. A coalition of California grocery stores, food processors and food equity supporters have asked the Superior Court in California to delay implementation of Prop 12 until July 1, 2023. It was already previously delayed to February 2023.
Whether we are paying too much for our turkeys and eggs, or if states start “food fights” over regulations, or we continue to see diseases plague the food industry, we should still always remain grateful. Grateful to the farmers that work tirelessly to ensure our tables are filled with the traditional Thanksgiving fixings. Just like there is always room for seconds, there’s always something to be thankful for.
Monica Lizar
Account Manager
Aeros, a Cultura Company
Feed and Grains:
AgDay TV Markets Now: Bryan Doherty Says Soybeans Have the Potential to Move Above $15
Grains close higher Wednesday except for corn. End of the month squaring and the outside markets were an influence. Soybeans follow meal with Argentina weather concerns, but prices push above $15? Michelle Rook asks Bryan Doherty of Total Farm Marketing.
Watch video here
Brazil expecting record 2022-23 corn crop
Brazil’s corn production in marketing year 2022-23 is forecast to reach a record 126 million tonnes based on the growing demand and price for corn in both the domestic and international market, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The projected corn output is nearly 9% higher than the estimated total of 116 million tonnes in 2021-22. The FAS maintained the forecast of planted area at 22.5 million hectares, nearly 4% higher than the harvested area of this current season.
Read full article here
Eggs:
Cage-free egg commitment report shows global progression
Over 75% of companies have reported progress on their cage-free transition, according to the 2022 EggTrack Report published on November 16, 2022.
The 2022 report tracks 232 companies and details each company’s cage-free deadline, progress made against pledges and key findings pertaining to the egg industry’s transition. Of the 232 companies, 103 operate globally, 52 operate in North America, 76 operate in Europe and 2 operate in the Asia-Pacific region.
To help egg producers match the future supply of cage-free eggs with future demand, it is important for companies with cage-free purchase pledges to clearly report their progress towards meeting those commitments. Additionally, tracking and reporting cage-free transition progress provides transparency to consumers.
Out of the 58 global companies reporting to EggTrack, 34 reported progress on cage-free pledges. Companies with global supply chains stand at an average of 63% cage free.
Read full article here
Roughly 2 million US birds lost to HPAI over Thanksgiving weekend
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) persisted in several midwestern states over the extended Thanksgiving weekend, affecting both commercial turkeys and laying hens.
In total, four turkey flocks in South Dakota, one turkey flock in Minnesota, one layer flock in Nebraska and one layer flock in Missouri were locations of confirmed HPAI cases. While animal health agencies’ accounts for how many birds were in the Nebraska flock differ, the collective number of birds lost in these cases is approximately 2 million.
Read full article here
Egg Week
USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, November 30th 2022.
The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were higher by 5.1 percent on average, continuing the upward move from last week. Mediums were unchanged indicating a balance between supply and demand. This past week shell egg inventory was almost unchanged despite higher prices. Both retail price and demand will continue to increase compared to previous years. For December 2022 and into 2023 retail purchases will be sustained by consumer perceptions of value in an inflationary environment with concern over the high cost for other protein foods. Availability and hence prices are influenced by depletion of close to 40 million hens in 18 large complexes in ten states extending from the last week in February through late November. The U.S. flock is slowly recovering in size with weekly transfer of pullets compensating for HPAI losses.
Total industry inventory increased by 1.3 percent overall this past week to 1.57 million cases with no material change in national shell egg inventory and a concurrent 6.8 percent increase in breaking stock attributed to the Thanksgiving break. Wholesale unit prices during the first three quarters of 2022 contrasted favorably with the corresponding periods in both 2020 and 2021 that were characterized by low ex-plant unit revenue. Generic eggs are yielding ever-increasing positive margins given the USDA benchmark average combined costs for nest-run of 80.0 cents per dozen in October (feed, hen depreciation, housing, labor and fuel). In addition the average cost of grading, packaging and delivery amounted to approximately 50 cents per dozen according to the EIC.
Read full article here
Wholesale table-egg prices continue to be high
October New York large, grade A wholesale egg prices averaged $3.35 per dozen, a 216% increase from last October and an almost a 4.5% increase from September average prices, according to the latest USDA “Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry” report. During the first half of the month, daily prices declined from the record value of $4.19 per dozen at the beginning of the month but began their holiday ascent sooner than expected, USDA economists Grace Grossen and Adriana Valcu-Lisman noted.
As Thanksgiving is upon us, the retail demand for eggs has followed expected seasonal patterns and reached similar pre-pandemic levels. However, counter-seasonally, the at-hand shell inventories were at one of the lowest levels for the period of the year, Grossen and Valcu-Lisman reported.
Read full article here
Poultry:
Poultry Meat Projection
On November 17th 2021 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2021 (actual), an update for 2022 and a projection for 2023.
Compared to 2021, broiler RTC production in 2022 was increased 2.4 percent in the November report to 45,974 million lbs. RTC (20.897 million metric tons.). Per capita consumption in 2022 will be 1.4 percent higher compared to 2021 at 98.8 lbs. (44.9 kg.). Exports will represent 15.7 percent of RTC production in 2022 attaining 7,212 million lbs. (3.278 million metric tons) comprising RTC leg quarters, other products and feet.
The projection for 2023 is for 46,825 million lbs. (21.284 million metric tons) with a per capita consumption of 100.6 lbs. (45.7 kg.) and exports of 7,370 million lbs. (3.350 million metric tons).
Read full article here
Four arrested in Perdue chicken internal theft case
Four suspects face criminal charges after being arrested on suspicion of a collective effort to steal more than $30,000 worth of raw chicken from a Perdue Farms facility in Milford, Delaware.
The Milford Police Department (MPD) started an investigation on November 2, after the company reported a suspected internal theft ring.
Read full article here
Developing countries continue to drive poultry’s growth
Over the next decade, the world’s population is expected to grow to 8.6 billion people, with an average annual growth rate of 0.9%, according to the latest predictions from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook publication. Population growth is focused on developing regions, specifically Sub-Saharan Africa, which is forecast to grow by 2.6% over the next 10 years (Figure 1).
By 2031, developing countries will increase poultry production by over 22%, while developed countries will grow only by 6% from the average of the period of 2019-21 (Table 1). Similarly, developing countries’ poultry meat consumption growth will be almost triple that of developed countries at 18.92% and 7.44%, respectively.
Globally, poultry meat consumption is projected to increase to 154 million mt (metric tons) by 2031 (Table 1). This is primarily attributed to the population growth and meat preferences of developing countries including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Read full article here
Turkey:
Turkey prices nearly 30% higher ahead of Thanksgiving
Since the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) began this spring, more than 7.5 million turkeys have been depopulated in an effort to mitigate the disease. That number continues to climb, with new cases being announced weekly.
According to a new research brief from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, these losses are just the latest blow to the national turkey flock, which was already shrinking due to a series of production challenges and industry contraction in recent years.
The combination of tight supplies and strong holiday demand will send retail turkey prices to record highs this year, the firm said. Seasonal cold storage inventories of whole birds are at their lowest level since 2006, and wholesale prices for frozen turkeys are currently running about 30% higher than last year.
Read full article here
North Carolina turkeys pardoned by President Biden
National Turkey Federation (NTF) Chairman Ronnie Parker presented the National Thanksgiving Turkey named “Chocolate” to President Joseph Biden this week during the National Thanksgiving Turkey Presentation.
“Chocolate” and his alternate, “Chip,” received a formal pardon from the holiday table and will now reside at the Talley Turkey Education Unit at North Carolina State University in Raleigh, North Carolina. This year’s presentation marked an exciting milestone as NTF celebrated 75 years of this time-honored American tradition dating back to 1947.
Read full article here
Pork:
Supreme Court Hops In The Pig Pen
Can California’s voters dictate how hogs are raised in Indiana based on animal welfare concerns? That is effectively the question the U.S. Supreme Court is pondering in a pending case, National Pork Producers Council v. Ross.
The case has implications for food production well beyond raising hogs. Depending on how the Supreme Court rules, it could open the door for states to start metaphorical food fights — with food laws.
THE FINE PRINT
In 2018, California’s voters passed a ballot initiative, Proposition 12, that requires California confinement operations to provide a minimum of 24 sq. ft. of space per sow.
Read full article here
Lower protein in pig diets reaps many benefits
Lowering crude protein in pig diets brings many benefits to environmental sustainability as well as animal health, according to Bart Matton, technical marketing manager – research center at CJ Europe, who spoke November 17 as part of the Feed Strategy Seminar Series at EuroTier 2022 in Hannover, Germany.
The amount of nitrogen ingested can be lowered by limiting the amount of protein, because animals don’t need protein to grow; they need amino acids.
Read full article here
Beef:
What does the future of the U.S. beef supply hold? RaboBank releases beef industry projections for Q4 2022 and beginning of 2023.
As the saying goes, “the devil is in the details,” especially when it comes to the state of the beef industry. That holds true for what Rabobank’s fourth-quarter beef report shows.
RaboBank reports cattle prices are generally favorable across the country, but consumer confidence is falling and that could signal problems for the beef industry. The big question is whether beef prices will be impacted by supply-side pressure or the demand side.
Globally, beef production is split by the hemisphere. Northern countries are in a declining production state while southern countries are increasing.
Read full article here
Dairy:
Dairy leaders share sustainability progress
Industry unity and alignment on sustainability goals can help secure a bright future for dairy. Dairy industry leaders recently gathered at the Dairy Sustainability Alliance Fall Meeting to discuss how USDA Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities projects can help secure a climate smart and profitable future for farmers.
The Alliance, formed through the checkoff-founded Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy, consists of companies and organizations across the dairy community and others who want to contribute to dairy’s social responsibility journey. Nearly 300 industry stakeholders, including about 30 farmers, attended the meeting.
Read full article here
USDA WIC proposal decreases access to dairy
USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service announced proposed changes to the foods prescribed to participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, known as WIC. The “science-based” revisions incorporate recommendations from the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) and the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020-2025.
“USDA is committed to advancing maternal and child health through WIC, helping mothers, babies and young kids thrive,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “These proposed changes will strengthen WIC – already an incredibly powerful program – by ensuring it provides foods that reflect the latest nutrition science to support healthy eating and bright futures.”
Read full article here
Miscellaneous:
Congress “Likely” to Pass a Rail Deal this Week, According to Soy Transportation Coalition’s Steenhoek
President Joe Biden late Monday called on Congress to pass legislation immediately to adopt the tentative agreement between railroad workers and operators that was approved by labor and management negotiators in September “without any modifications or delay — to avert a potentially crippling national rail shutdown.”
Biden noted the deal “provides a historic 24% pay raise for rail workers. It provides improved health care benefits. And it provides the ability of operating craft workers to take unscheduled leave for medical needs,” adding that “since that time, the majority of the unions in the industry have voted to approve the deal.
Biden said a rail shutdown “would devastate our economy. Without freight rail, many U.S. industries would shut down.”
Read full article here
Preventing a zoonotic disease pandemic
Zoonotic diseases have been around for tens of thousands of years, but the COVID-19 pandemic brought to public attention the increased interest of zoonotic diseases, particularly the potential for animal agriculture to be the source of the next pandemic. The Council for Agricultural Science and Technology’s (CAST) has released a new paper, “Zoonotic Diseases in Animal Agriculture and Beyond: A One Health Perspective,” that focuses not only on zoonotic diseases, but also the importance of One Health.
“More than a dozen expert authors, led by Dr. Lonnie King, came together to bring this proposal into a full publication. This publication is the result of many months of writing, editing, revising, and reviewing, not only by the authors, but also CAST staff and a group of peer reviewers,” Sally Flis CAST president and Kent Schescke executive vice president and chief executive officer, wrote in the report. “We thank each member of the task force for their dedication to this paper; it is not possible without an enthusiastic team of volunteers.”
Read full article here
Prop 12 implementation expected to be delayed until July 1, 2023
A coalition of California grocery stores and restaurants, business organizations, food processors and food equity supporters have asked the Superior Court of Sacramento for an extension of the court’s injunction against implementation of Proposition 12 until July 1, 2023. The Food Equity Alliance says delaying the implementation of Prop 12 is “the only solution to protect the most-vulnerable Californians, Latino and Asian grocery markets and restaurants from facing increased food prices and food insecurity.”
In September, California’s Department of Food and Agriculture announced it had finally completed the Prop 12 implementation rules, more than three years after the original statutory deadline. The Superior Court for Sacramento County in California had ruled earlier this year to halt enforcement of Prop 12 because the California Department of Food and Agriculture took more than two years to finalize regulations outlining what is expected of pork producers. The ruling delayed enforcement until 180 days after the final rules go into effect, which would trigger enforcement and compliance by Feb. 28, 2023.
Read full article here
The information in this newsletter is intended to update our readers of current events. Any third-party publications are presented for informational purposes only and the views presented in such publications are those of the respective authors. The views therein are not necessarily representative of Aeros or any other CULTURA company’s views on any particular topic.